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Toy collectors and hobbyists from across Asia are gearing up for the return of Thailand Toy Expo on April 3-6. One can expect an electrifying showcase of toys, featuring exclusive sales and an extensive display of everything from niche collectibles, intricately sculpted models, to the ever-popular art toys.
But as thousands battle for the limited editions and fuel the frenzy, we ask: what is it about these “toys” that commands such fervent devotion? Why do collectors go all-in for a single prized piece?
You Either Pull a Hero or Live Long Enough to See a Duplicate: Blind Box 101
In our previous article, we explored the art toy tribe and what makes it so special emotionally; however, the spectrum of art toys goes beyond that. Various marketing tactics are implemented in the production and sale of art toys to turn the ordinary model into a hard-to-find collectible, hiking its resale price to double or even triple.
Purchasing a single blind box is a gamble in many sense—you won’t know which model in the collection you’ll get. If one so desperately wants to get the model they want, there’s a sure way to get it, but at a cost. Buying the whole collection or what the collector called “whole set” guarantees that you will get every character in the collection without repetition, which often comes in a set of 8-12 single blind boxes. This encourages buyers to purchase the whole collection to prevent the risk of getting copies.
What’s fascinating is that every whole set includes a hidden gem—a secret model. Take POP MART for example: there is typically a 1 in 12 chance that a set will contain a secret model, replacing one of the standard figures. If we do the math, the odds of pulling one are 1/98 in a set of 8 or 1/144 in a set of 12. The “rarity” of these secret models amps up the thrill as well as their perceived value. If you’re still confused, look at the diagram below:
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Except the Secret Model)
Artists behind these toys often design more characters than the usual 8-12 slots per set, pushing companies to get creative with distribution. Some collections include multiple rare models, labeled by the toy community as “Secret” for models with moderate rarity and “Super Secret” for those highly rare designs. Art toys like POP MART’s MEGA SPACE MOLLY 100% Series 2 feature this format.
Each whole box would be divided into two pools of models, a generic seeded model which is always guaranteed in every set, and then a special slot reserved for either a secret or super secret model. Meaning, every whole set is guaranteed to have a secret model; however, these secret models are randomized (there are often 3-5 specials in one collection).
In cases where one is extremely lucky to win a secret model, it would replace the special model in that collection.
What does this mean for the collectors? To complete a full set, they often need to buy multiple sets—inevitably ending up with duplicates. To avoid this, many turn to resellers for the missing pieces. As a result, Secret and Super Secret models soar in value, sometimes fetching ten times the price of a single blind box.
It Takes Two…Whole Sets
Some collections may feature over 20 models. However, instead of packaging all 20 models into a single box, producers often divide their blind boxes into two sets: A and B.
For example, FINDING UNICORN’s top-selling FARMER BOB Next Generation·Pixel Universe Series Blind Box collection consists of 26 designs. These are divided into 18 standard designs, six special designs, one secret design, and one super-secret design—ranked in order of rarity from low to high.
Each whole set contains 10 blind boxes. Nine of these feature the set’s standard designs (which always appear in that set), while the remaining slot is reserved for a special, secret, or ultra-rare super-secret design. This approach essentially combines two different formats and doubles the challenge, making it even harder to collect them all.
The Devil Wears Limited Edition
Blind boxes might be a common way in which art toys are sold; however, they are not the only way they are distributed. Some models, usually not sold as blind boxes and whole sets, are usually in a bigger variant, sometimes are sold in a limited time or require pre-order. Some are produced in a very limited number, having to win a lucky draw (or “lotto”) to be eligible to buy them. Some come with unique designs like the Crybaby Make Me Float figure, a standalone blind box size featuring a transparent balloon gimmick. Some are special edition collaborations with other artists, such as Hirono collaboration with Keith Haring figure. These categories of art toys are often double or triple the price of their same-size counterparts.
Hirono × Keith Karing Figure (left) and Crybaby Make Me Float Figure.
There is also a variation of this that incorporates chance-based elements, such as a limited model with a slim chance of being a special color edition.
Farmer Bob 300% Gameboy Bob (Green model on the right is the special coloration)
No Gacha, No Glory
It’s no secret that adding a “guarantee system” to blind box sales heightens excitement and boosts sales. This strategy isn’t limited to collectibles—it’s also a staple in gacha games.
In a previous article, we explored how HoYoverse games connect to their global audience through their impeccable localization. Interestingly, they and other gacha game developer also implemented similar “guarantee” tactics to their games. (Gacha game: Games that utilize a mechanic where players can acquire desired characters or items through a chance-based system, a concept derived from the term Gachapon.)
The process of obtaining a featured item or character in gacha games goes by different names depending on the game’s lore, but most players call it a “Pull” or “Roll.” “Pull” comes from pulling a slot machine lever—hoping for luck—while “Roll” refers to rolling dice, emphasizing the randomness. The “coin” used for pulls is in-game currency, usually gems, which players can buy with real money.
Pulling in gacha games is like chasing a jackpot—each pull offers a chance at the featured item, but the odds are slim. However, most games include a “pity system” to guarantee the character after a set number of pulls. Some even increase the odds as players get closer to the limit. In HoYoverse’s Zenless Zone Zero, you’re guaranteed to get a Bangboo within 80 pulls.
The Signal Search screen in Zenless Zone Zero displays the rate at which the Bangboo is obtained, as indicated on the game’s interface.
Systems vary, as some games add extra twists, like the 50-50 system—when you reach the first limit, there’s a 50% chance you’ll get the featured item. If you don’t, the second limit guarantees it 100%. After that, the cycle resets, making the chase even more exciting—and sometimes frustrating.
50-50 mechanic
Pull Hard or Go Home: WHALE vs DOLPHIN
In addition, many gacha games utilize various monetization models aimed at different segments of players. The aforementioned models primarily cater to general players, such as free-to-play players and those who make occasional purchases, commonly referred to as “Dolphins” within the gaming community. While free-to-play users and Dolphins constitute the majority of the player base, there is also another group of players known as “Whales.” These players are willing to make big financial pay in the game, often including game streamers and affluent individuals. The mechanics designed to appeal to Whales generally involve the enhancement of characters or items by acquiring multiple copies of the same asset and superimposing them on top of each other.
It’s important to note that games incentivize players to keep pulling until they obtain the featured limited-time asset through a strategic pulling and monetization model.
What’s fascinating about RNG or random number generation (a computer chance-based system used in games) is that its rates may not be set in stone. While based on fixed mathematical probabilities, many players have noticed that new or returning players (who haven’t logged in for a while) often get luckier pulls or win 50-50 more easily. This has led to speculation that developers tweak rates to keep these players engaged.
Regulations require gacha games to disclose pull rates and RNG rules, but adjusting probabilities for player retention exists in a legal gray area. While seasoned players are aware of this possibility, there’s no definitive proof—only patterns observed by the community.
Strategies to Elevate Value and Sales in Gacha Games & Art Toys
Always implement a ‘guarantee’ system in all chance-based collector businesses. This not only enhances transparency with your customers but also amplifies the excitement of opening a blind box or gacha. Additionally, incorporating such a guarantee can effectively incentivize customers to increase their spending.
Be creative in how you present your “randomized” or “gacha model”. Since this business model encourages customers to purchase multiple copies of your product, the more creative you are in designing the gacha mechanics, the greater your potential to motivate customers to make repeat purchases. This concept is further demonstrated by the RNG mechanics in gacha games, where developers only need to create the item once, allowing it to be sold an unlimited number of times, effectively ensuring an infinite supply.
The business models of blind box and gacha games operate in a manner akin to gambling. Therefore, whether you are a consumer or a producer, it is important to approach these activities with responsibility. While the concept of responsible spending is clear to players, it holds a different significance for blind box companies and game developers.
For blind box companies, which are often faced with a resale price hike, one way to alleviate the financial burden on collectors is by increasing the supply of art toys, whether they are limited edition or not. This ensures that all collectors have equitable access to the standard pricing without resorting to secondary market purchases from scalpers.
For gacha game developers, one could consider integrating responsible gaming practices into their business models. This could include occasional giveaways of limited 5-star characters, increasing the drop rates for such characters, or providing clear disclaimers to inform players about the risks and costs involved. Such actions can promote fairness and transparency within the gaming experience.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chanon Raopanya consults on integrated communications and marketing strategy for tech brands and FMCG clients such as Intel, Trend Micro, Sonos, Fatboy Izakaya and Spotify. As a tech, design and gaming enthusiast, he delights in the fun concepts and designs he encounters around town, as well as innovative ideas tech industries have come up with in recent products and services.
